FactoryWager Wiki

Partner limit raises

Plane: ops SQLite (operations.db) · public Pages bake · agent API Artifacts: public/registry/limit-raises.json · portal /portal/limits/ · ops-summary limitChanges Secrets: none for board bake; agent read paths use existing serve-public / Pages auth where wired

Detect sportsbook account limit changes, enrich with multi-factor context (handle, CLV, risk inverted), seal digests, and connect each row to an account-centered limit profile: partner/downline identity, Partner Profile OS binding, sportsbook observations, state licenses, geo profiles, jurisdiction policies, ZIP-prefix clusters, regulatory audit counts, and time-ordered trace evidence.

Architecture

operations.db
  partner_account_limits · limit_raise_context · (optional) limit_predictions
  partner_profile_bindings · partner_geo_profiles · partner_state_licenses
  regulation-policy-catalog.ts ──materialize──▶ regulatory_limits
  regulatory_violations
        │
        ├── AccountLimitsRepository          # detect / seed / recent changes
        ├── PartnerAnalyticsRepository       # capture context · multi-factor score · seal
        ├── buildAccountLimitProfiles        # profile + jurisdiction + monitoring + trace read model
        ├── buildCompliancePolicyKpis        # blocked · active · risk · recent changes
        ├── policy:audit                     # conflicts · refs · alerts · expiration
        ├── LimitRaiseReport                 # Bun.inspect.table + inspect.custom
        ├── predictLimitRaise                # forecast next raise
        │
        ├── tools/ops-check-limits.ts        # ops:limits:check · :demo · :multi · :alerts
        ├── tools/capture-raise-context.ts   # ops:limits:capture
        ├── tools/ops-limit-predict.ts       # ops:limits:predict
        ├── tools/seed-limit-patterns.ts     # multi-partner/downline/state/ZIP fixture
        ├── exportLimitRaisesSnapshot        # ops:snapshot → /registry/limit-raises.json
        │
        ├── Local: serve-public agent handlers (live SQLite)
        └── Pages:
              GET /api/agents/v1/limits/raises  → ASSETS snapshot
              GET /api/limits/summary           → snapshot aggregate
              POST record / analyze / predictions → 503 stubs (local only)

DB home: operations.db (not partner.db). Wire AccountLimitsRepository / analytics against the ops connection used by ops:snapshot and serve-public.

Operator loop

# 1. Demo seed + multi-factor tables (CLI)
bun run ops:limits:demo
# ≡ ops-check-limits --reseed --multi  → LimitRaiseReport inspect tables

# Connected fixture: 3 partners · 5 downline nodes · 5 books · MA/NJ · 5 ZIP clusters
bun run ops:limits:seed-patterns

# 2. Check / capture / predict
bun run ops:limits:check --partner partner-42 --multi
bun run ops:limits:capture --inspect
bun run ops:limits:predict --partner partner-42 --inspect

# 3. Bake registry + portal companion (48h window, capture missing context)
bun run ops:snapshot   # writes public/registry/limit-raises.json

# 4. Local portal
bun run serve:public:hot   # open /portal/limits/ · /registry/limit-raises.json
# Agent (local live SQLite):
#   GET /api/agents/v1/limits/raises?node_id=partner-42&hours=24
#   GET /api/agents/v1/limits/raises?node_id=partner-42&format=table
#   GET /api/agents/v1/limits/raises?node_id=partner-42&hours=168&format=csv   # account betlog
#   GET /api/agents/v1/limits/raises?node_id=partner-42&hours=168&format=jsonl
#   GET /api/limits/summary?format=table
#   GET /api/limits/analyze
#   POST /api/agents/v1/limits/record — JSON body: { node_id, sportsbook, sport_id, market_id, bet_type, max_wager }

# 5. Snapshot (scope-aware, with manifest + index)
bun run snapshot:data-plane --scope limits

# 6. Domain matrix (limit impact heatmap)
bun run scan:domains --limit-only

Code map

Layer Path Role
Schema / detect lib/account-limits-repo.ts partner_account_limits · detectRaises · CLV/line enrich · seedAccountLimitsDemo · queryRecentLimitChanges · alert formatters
Multi-factor lib/operations/partner-analytics-repo.ts limit_raise_context · computeMultiFactorScore · seal proofs · exportLimitRaisesSnapshot · captureAllMissingRaiseContexts
Connected patterns lib/operations/limit-patterns.ts deterministic partner/downline seed · book/state/ZIP aggregates · hierarchy/geo/license/proof audit coverage
Account profiles lib/operations/account-limit-profiles.ts account/profile identity · jurisdiction policy codes · evidence-derived status/tone · trace timeline
Regulation authority lib/operations/state-regulation.ts effective state/account policies · MA/NJ reference seed · licenses · violations · dynamic additional-state projection
Governed policy catalog lib/operations/regulation-policy-catalog.ts · docs/JURISDICTIONS.md lifecycle · jurisdiction inheritance · deterministic codes · risk/enforcement · tiers/exclusions · generated reference
Compliance KPIs lib/operations/compliance-policy-kpis.ts blocked today · active policies · highest-risk jurisdiction · trailing-30-day policy changes
Glossary semantics lib/portal/semantic-vocabulary.ts limit account/profile/policy/code/status/evidence/effective-limit definitions consumed by the portal
Sports-data glossary lib/operations/sports-betting-glossary.ts · bake tools/domain-glossary.ts sport.* · competition / league.* · event.* · market.* · metric.* · cross_market.* · evidence.* · multi.* (portal projection)
Opening baseline lib/operations/sportsbook-opening-baseline.ts · baseline-scraped-limits.ts · scrapers/sportsbook-limits.ts · config/scraper-targets.ts · bun run baseline:sync-scraped Multi-tier bake (schema v2): T1 NJ/MA · T2 policies · T4 estimated scrape fixture · T5 ops matrix → /registry/sportsbook-opening-baseline.json · /portal/partner-history/
CLI report lib/operations/limit-raise-report.ts LimitRaiseReport · LIMIT_*_TABLE_PROPERTIES · Bun.inspect.table + [Bun.inspect.custom] · deep Uint8Array digests
Agent HTTP lib/operations/limit-raise-agent-api.ts raises / record / summary / analyze / predictions · ?format=table\|text\|inspect on raises+summary
Prediction lib/prediction/limit-prediction.ts predictLimitRaise · backfill · cycle
Predict report lib/prediction/limit-prediction-report.ts forecast inspect.table / inspect.custom
CLI — check tools/ops-check-limits.ts ops:limits:check · :all · :clv · :multi · :demo · :alerts
CLI — capture tools/capture-raise-context.ts ops:limits:capture · optional --inspect
CLI — predict tools/ops-limit-predict.ts ops:limits:predict · :predict:json · --inspect
CLI — analyze tools/ops-limit-analyze.ts ops:limits:analyze · :analyze:json
CLI — snapshot tools/snapshot-data-plane.ts · tools/snapshot-core.ts snapshot:data-plane · --scope limits · manifest · index · list · grep
CLI — domain scanner tools/scan-domains.ts scan:domains · matrix · limit hits · --limit-only · --watch · --interactive
Table formatter lib/table-format.ts ANSI tables · LIMIT_CHANGE_COLUMNS · DIMENSION_COLUMNS · REGULATORY_COLUMNS · formatTableNative (Bun.inspect.table)
CLI — connected seed tools/seed-limit-patterns.ts --force replaces only limit-demo-* rows · --bake writes the limit registry snapshot
CLI — TOC bridge seed tools/seed-toc-limit-bridge.ts · lib/operations/toc-limit-bridge-seed.ts Writes raises on ASH/PAT identity treeNodeId UUIDs so TOC board raises 48h join lights · scoped --force · optional --bake
Bake exportLimitRaisesSnapshot (analytics) · tools/ops-snapshot.ts companion bake → public/registry/limit-raises.json
Portal UI public/portal/limits/index.html · limit-profiles.js · glossary-ux.js account profiles · policy catalog · trace deep links · glossary tooltips/breadcrumbs · legacy pattern/change analysis
Pages edge functions/api/agents/v1/limits/raises.ts · …/record.ts · functions/api/limits/summary.ts snapshot GET · record 503 stub · summary aggregate
Route SSOT lib/http/public-routes.ts /portal/limits/ · registry · raises · record · summary · analyze · predictions
Weave lib/http/portal-weave.ts surface · artifact · scripts (ops:limits:* · seed-limit-patterns)
Ops summary lib/operations/ops-summary.ts limitChanges[] card slice from ops DB
Monitoring / health lib/monitoring/limit-slice.ts limitRaises monitoring tile · health artifacts.limitRaises (missing bake does not degrade)
Barrel lib/operations/index.ts · lib/prediction/index.ts all limit agent handlers + limit prediction exports
Tests tests/account-limits-repo.test.ts · analytics-multifactor.test.ts · limit-raise-report.test.ts · limit-raise-agent-api.test.ts · limit-patterns*.test.ts · limit-prediction-report.test.ts schema · score · inspect · agent · Pages · predict

Monorepo filter (bun –filter)

Limit-related tools run from the root workspace. Use bun --filter <pattern> to target packages:

# Run limit tests only in specified workspaces
bun test --filter '!tests/limit-*-agent-api*'    # exclude agent API tests
bun --filter '*' ops:limits:check                  # run in all workspaces (root only has the script)
bun --filter './packages/*' ops:limits:check       # packages only (no-op — limit tools in root)

# Install dependencies for specific groups
bun install --filter '!packages/*'                 # root only (omit sub-packages)
bun install --filter './packages/*'                # packages only

See bun --filter docs.

Script Tool / behavior
bun run ops:limits:check Freshness / changes (default table)
bun run ops:limits:check:all All nodes
bun run ops:limits:check:clv CLV-enriched
bun run ops:limits:check:multi Multi-factor + context
bun run ops:limits:demo Force-seed demo + multi report
bun run ops:limits:capture Capture missing raise context rows
bun run ops:limits:alerts Deep alerts / channel publish path
bun run ops:limits:analyze:json Analyze JSON only
bun run ops:limits:predict Forecast next raise (CLI)
bun run ops:limits:predict:json Forecast JSON only
bun run snapshot:data-plane Scope-aware snapshot (default: limits)
bun run snapshot:data-plane:list List all snapshots
bun run snapshot:data-plane:last Show latest snapshot manifest
bun run ops:limits:analyze Granular book/sport/market breakdown
bun run ops:limits:analyze:json Analyze JSON only
bun run ops:limits:seed-patterns Connected multi-partner seed + registry bake (seed-limit-patterns --force --bake)
bun run ops:limits:seed-toc-bridge Seed raises on TOC identity UUIDs (ASH/PAT) · --reseed · optional bake via :bake
bun run ops:limits:smoke Cross-surface test bundle (bridge · join · outbox · seat book-max · UI)
bun run ops:snapshot:demo ops:seed:all (includes toc-bridge) + snapshot bake
bun run ops:snapshot Bakes limit-raises.json (capture + 48h; runs toc-bridge unless --no-toc-limits)
bun run policy:audit CI policy consistency gate: references, conflicts, block alerts, expiration
bun run jurisdictions:docs Generate the governed jurisdiction catalog reference
bun run jurisdictions:docs:check Fail when the generated jurisdiction reference is stale
bun run baseline:sync-regulatory Tier 1 catalog projection + full opening-baseline bake (schema v2)
bun run baseline:sync-policies Tier 2 published-policy fixture + full opening-baseline bake
bun run baseline:sync-scraped / baseline:scrape-public Tier 4: run agents → JSONL · merge latest cells → /registry/scraped-limits-observed.json · fixture opening-baseline bake (CI-stable)
bun run baseline:scrape-book -- <bookId> One registry agent by bookId → artifacts/raw-limits/{bookId}.jsonl + health.json
bun run baseline:scrape-draftkings / fanduel / bet365 / espnbet / betmgm / caesars / hardrock / fanatics / betrivers / circa Aliases for baseline:scrape-book (US top-10 Tier 4 fleet)
bun run baseline:scrape-cron / :once In-process Bun.cron · default */15 * * * * UTC · no-overlap · JSONL + alert eval
bun run baseline:scrape-alert Evaluate consecutive agent fails → Slack/webhook (BASELINE_SCRAPE_ALERT_WEBHOOK, threshold default 3)
bun run baseline:caesars:probe Deep-probe Caesars/AW catalog (--location=co · --live · --json) — WAF vs public
bun run baseline:test-tier4 Tier 4 agent + registry + scrape unit tests

Scrape wire taxonomy (state · sport · market)

All Tier 4 agents normalize vendor wire onto one SSOT before JSONL write:

Key Module Canonical values
Book scrape-wire-taxonomy.ts US top-10 fleet (draftkings…circa) — bookRegistry; aliases dk/czr/espn_bet…
Sport same Full SPORT_KEYS (8) + league→sport aliases — sportRegistry
League same Competition-catalog codes (18+) — leagueRegistry (nba, epl, ufc, …)
Market same Regulation match_winner·over_under·spread + extended player_prop·team_prop·futures — marketRegistry
Phase same pregame · live (in_play/inplay → live) — phaseRegistry
State same Full US + DC (51) — stateRegistry; fixture subset NJ·CO·MA

Bake: bun run bake:scrape-wire-taxonomy → /registry/scrape-wire-taxonomy.json (schema v5 · colorKey/hex/css on book/sport/league rows via scrape-wire-color-kernel.ts). Glossary: scrape.wire · scrape.book · scrape.sport · scrape.league · scrape.market · scrape.phase · scrape.jurisdiction.

Color kernel contract

Invariant Enforcement
Closed palette scrape-wire-palette.ts — books + sports + leagues + unknown
Bun.color validate Module load throws on invalid input; caches HEX / css / {rgb} / ansi-16m
Unique HEX No two palette keys share a normalized #RRGGBB (load + assertScrapeWireColorCoverage)
Strict chip hex /^#[0-9A-Fa-f]{6}$/ — catalog rejects non-matching bake values before --chip-color
Bake ↔ kernel schema:audit requires colorKey === key and hex/css equal *ColorWire(key)
UI tags Catalog chips set data-color-key + data-glossary-concept

Governance (schema:audit)

Registries are maintained alongside the domain glossary and the limits desk column semantics (ops.limits.* in semantic-vocabulary.ts).

Command Role
bun run schema:audit Validate + write /registry/scrape-wire-schema-audit.json
bun run schema:audit:check Gate only (exit 1 on errors)
bun run schema:audit:json Machine report

Checks:

  1. Every sport referenced by a league exists in SPORT_KEYS.
  2. Every league used on the desk (ops.limits.league) is in the competition league registry.
  3. Desk sport / market / competition / phase values ⊆ scrape-wire keys.
  4. Every US top-10 book has a vendor alias map (book-vendor-aliases.ts) whose targets are canonical.
  5. Color kernel covers every book / sport / league; baked hex/css/colorKey match kernel wires; no cross-registry hex collisions.

Per-book resolve: resolveBookSport / resolveBookMarket / resolveBookLeague / resolveBookPhase (book overlay → global normalizer).

Caesars / American Wagering live path

Capture-derived catalog: lib/operations/scrapers/catalogs/caesars-americanwagering.ts · bake /registry/caesars-scrape-endpoints.json.

Piece Detail
Primary live URL https://api.americanwagering.com/regions/us/locations/{nj\|co}/brands/czr/sb/bets/configuration
Gate CloudFront / AWS WAF — plain fetch → 403 HTML; fixture fallback remains the default
Public (no WAF) sb/features, configs/sportsbook/{loc}/splash, sportsbook.caesars.com/us/config/* — no opening max USD
Optional auth CAESARS_SCRAPE_COOKIE · CAESARS_WAF_TOKEN · CAESARS_SCRAPE_LOCATION (default nj) · BASELINE_SCRAPE_LIVE=1
Parser caesars-parse.ts — flexible maxBet / maxStake / nested limits[]
bun run baseline:status Tier coverage / row counts for committed baseline artifact
bun run baseline:sync-all Tier 1+2+4+5 bake; Tier 3 partner API provenance (unavailable until credentials) · overrides still stubbed
bun run bake:sportsbook-opening-baseline:check Drift gate for /registry/sportsbook-opening-baseline.json

Baseline source tiers

Tier Role Status
1 Statutory / regulatory (REGULATION_POLICY_CATALOG → compliance ceiling) Wired · baseline:sync-regulatory
2 Published sportsbook policies (basketball/soccer research seeds) Wired · baseline:sync-policies
3 Partner API live limits Wired provenance · unavailable until PARTNER_LIMITS_API_URL + PARTNER_LIMITS_API_TOKEN · baseline-partner-api.ts
4 Public scrape estimates (registry agents → JSONL + merge companion; optional live) Wired · scrape() + bookId + books/registry.ts · JSONL merge → /registry/scraped-limits-observed.json · Lab ingest via limit-forecast-scrape-ingest.ts · cron scrape-cron.ts (*/15 UTC)
5 Ops opening matrix (top-10 US books × sport/market/structure/phase) Wired · commercial baseline

Merge win-order: Tier 1 = compliance hard ceiling; Tier 3 = live comparison; commercial display Tier 5 > 2 > 4. See lib/operations/baseline-source-tiers.ts.

bun --console-depth=6 run ops:limits:demo     # deeper nested digests
bun run ops:limits:check --partner partner-42 --multi --inspect
bun run ops:limits:predict --partner partner-42 --inspect

Surfaces

Surface Path Mode
Portal board /portal/limits/ Static HTML; prefers live summary / registry
Registry bake /registry/limit-raises.json schema v3: 48h raises + accountProfiles v2 read model
Ops summary ops-summary.limitChanges Live SQLite when baking summary
Agent raises GET /api/agents/v1/limits/raises?node_id=&hours= Local: SQLite · Pages: snapshot
Agent table same + ?format=table\|text\|inspect LimitRaiseReport text/plain (local + Pages)
Account betlog same + ?format=csv\|jsonl Pattern log download (raises + factors) · portal links on /portal/partner-history/
Export helper lib/operations/limit-betlog-export.ts CSV / JSONL flatten + Content-Disposition
Record POST /api/agents/v1/limits/record Local write · Pages 503 plane=local-sqlite · reason=bun:sqlite
Public summary GET /api/limits/summary · ?format=table Local SQLite · Pages snapshot aggregate
Analyze GET /api/limits/analyze Local only · Pages 503 same contract
Predictions GET\|POST /api/limits/predictions Local only · Pages 503 same contract

Account profile and policy semantics

The board calls a partner-tree node an account and keeps that identity as a branded TreeNodeId. Its Partner Profile OS binding is a separate branded PartnerProfileKey; the two values are never collapsed into one generic ID.

Terminology (glossary SSOT in lib/portal/semantic-vocabulary.ts):

Wire / code UI label Glossary
node_id / TreeNodeId Account ops.limits.node · ops.limits.account
tree_nodes hierarchy Partner tree ops.limits.tree
Descendants under a partner Downline ops.limits.downline
node_type Role type ops.limits.roleType (partner · agent · sub_agent)
node_type: agent Downline agent ops.limits.agent (not HTTP, not Cursor)
/api/agents/v1/… Agent API api.agent

accountProfiles is a read model over existing tables, not a new write authority. Monitoring status is derived from evidence:

Status Evidence rule Tone
monitored profile + jurisdiction + observed limit dimensions; no recent violation ok
attention jurisdiction exists but no active matching license warn
blocked one or more regulatory violations in the trailing 30 days bad
incomplete remaining accounts missing enough bindings for active monitoring skip

Policy keys use policy.{STATE}.{SPORT}.{MARKET} and codes use the deterministic form FW-LIMIT-{STATE}-{SPORT}-{MARKET}-{SCOPE}. The TypeScript catalog owns lifecycle, effective/expiration dates, authority, risk, enforcement, daily and weekly totals, age, identity, tax, tags, exclusion groups, tiers, and alert binding. Jurisdiction defaults are inherited before the catalog is materialized into SQLite; regulatory_limits remains the runtime lookup index.

MA and NJ are internal reference seeds, not external legal citations. Additional two-letter jurisdictions discovered in legacy active rows remain visible with explicit regulatory_limits:legacy provenance. The generated docs/JURISDICTIONS.md is the human catalog, while policy:audit is the machine gate.

Glossary deep links:

Account dossier (full single-account breakdown — tree, location, monitoring, telemetry, outs, betlog): /portal/account/?account={TreeNodeId} (optional &hours=). Account links on partner-history and the limit-changes card open this board.

Account trace state on the limits board still uses /portal/limits/#account:{TreeNodeId} and is parsed by URLPattern.hash.

Failure paths (operator)

Condition Response / behavior Fix
Missing node_id on raises 400 + example URL pass node_id
Bad hours 400 (local + Pages) positive number ≤ 30d
Snapshot missing / empty byNode (Pages) 503 + bake links ops:snapshot or seed-limit-patterns --force --bake
Record on Pages 503 mutations not available local serve-public
Invalid JSON / fields on record 400 required fields + finite max_wager
SQLite / schema errors on GET 500 + demo hint ops:limits:demo
No changes in window 200 empty / table hint seed or widen hours

Inspect tables (LimitRaiseReport)

console.log(report) → multi-section layout via [Bun.inspect.custom]. Explicit columns:

Section Properties const Columns
Raises LIMIT_RAISE_TABLE_PROPERTIES node · book · sport · market · type · prev · new · dir · score · line5m · when
Drivers LIMIT_FACTOR_TABLE_PROPERTIES limit_id · factor · weight_score · rank
CLV LIMIT_CLV_TABLE_PROPERTIES limit_id · player · tier · delta
Context LIMIT_CONTEXT_TABLE_PROPERTIES limit_id · metric · value
Proofs LIMIT_PROOF_TABLE_PROPERTIES limit_id · algorithm · digest_hex · digest_bytes · signed · valid

Idempotency of Bun.inspect.table is proven in tableProof() / tests (same pattern as RouteProbeReport).

Multi-factor score (weights)

Positive weights; risk metrics inverted via ranges (high violations / chargebacks / volatility lower score). SSOT: MULTI_FACTOR_WEIGHTS / MULTI_FACTOR_RANGES in partner-analytics-repo.

Factor Weight Notes
total_handle_7d 0.20 Volume
avg_clv_7d 0.15 Closing-line value
violation_count_30d 0.12 inverted risk
chargeback_count_30d 0.12 inverted risk
kyc_pass_rate 0.10  
partner_profit_30d 0.10  
market_volatility_index 0.08 inverted risk
sportsbook_share 0.05  
top_tier_player_count 0.04  
active_players_7d 0.04  
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